So far, so good. The Gamecocks flirted with disaster, falling into a typical USC sports late season slide, but used the break to regroup and come back stronger for the regionals and super regionals. Through those contests the team has continued to climb, now peaking at just the right moment in the College World Series. Not only are we coming through in clutch situations, but the bracket finals against Clemson showed that we’re finally coming out of the gate with greater intensity instead of waiting for the pressure to mount before taking action. This last step is a key to winning the big prize, and the Gamecocks now sit in perfect position to make school history with a series win over UCLA.

A lot of analysis has gone into the individual numbers and matchups this series will present, but at this level it’s all about streaks and rhythms, and when comparing these teams with very similar records at 51-15 and 52-16, there are lots of reasons to think USC should be favored to triumph.

Beginning with the regular season, note that while UCLA opened with an astounding 23 game winning streak, once they began their tougher conference schedule their success rate dropped substantially, going 21-13 for the rest of the ride. The Gamecocks, playing in a stronger conference and even losing 4 of the last 5 (including the SEC tournament), still went 30-11 over their similar stretch.

If you look at common opponents you’ll see that UCLA beat Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, LSU, Florida and Oklahoma in one-game matchups. The most telling data here, however, is that they were swept in 3 games by Arizona State (by a combined score of 23-5), a team that the Gamecocks utterly dominated in CWS bracket play, 11-4.

Moving on to playoff records, note that the Gamecocks are 9-1, dropping only one game that was interrupted by a long rain delay, causing us to lose our starting pitcher and disrupting our then-pattern of exploding on offense in the later innings. It is also notable that 4 of those games were elimination games. UCLA meanwhile has gone 8-2, dropping one in the super regional, while facing the pressure of elimination only 3 times.

Indeed, the biggest edge for the Gamecocks comes when looking at the pressure factor. Of our 10 playoff games, 5 have been one-run contests, 4 of which were Gamecock triumphs (including 2 elimination games). If you’ve been following the series at all you’ve seen the dramatic nature of many of these victories and know that we’ve been up to the task and are well conditioned to handle any pressure at this point. Meanwhile UCLA has had only one close game in the entire post-season, a one-run loss to Cal State Fullerton in the super regional. Winning their opening game at the CWS, the Bruins have simply not faced the type of pressure to perform that the Gamecocks have, with their other 9 games being no closer than 3 runs.   

Put it all together and you have a seasoned, hungry Gamecock squad who knows now what it takes to win and a coasting UCLA team that is due for a lesson in humility. At this point you can throw out the individual matchups, unless there’s a stat somewhere for the will to win, because that’s what this series will come down to, and on that basis one must favor South Carolina. I just hope that we can rub it in with some “USC” chants in the final innings of our victory. I’m sure those Bruins fans will love to hear that.